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A looming crisis over drafting Haredi men into the military is threatening to undermine the governing coalition and splitting the state.

Public opinion on the matter has changed profoundly in Israel following two years of conflict, and this is now arguably the most explosive political risk facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Judicial Conflict

Politicians are currently considering a draft bill to terminate the special status given to ultra-Orthodox men enrolled in full-time religious study, instituted when the modern Israel was declared in 1948.

The deferment was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court two decades ago. Stopgap solutions to extend it were officially terminated by the bench last year, pressuring the administration to commence conscription of the ultra-Orthodox population.

Some 24,000 enlistment orders were delivered last year, but just approximately 1,200 ultra-Orthodox - or Haredi - draftees enlisted, according to defense officials presented to lawmakers.

Tensions Boil Over Into Violence

Friction is spilling onto the public squares, with lawmakers now debating a new legislative proposal to force Haredi males into national service in the same way as other Israeli Jews.

A pair of ultra-Orthodox lawmakers were harassed this month by some extreme ultra-Orthodox protesters, who are incensed with the Knesset's deliberations of the bill.

And last week, a special Border Police unit had to rescue army police who were targeted by a large crowd of Haredi men as they tried to arrest a suspected draft-evader.

Such incidents have led to the development of a new messaging system dubbed "Black Alert" to send out instant alerts through ultra-Orthodox communities and call out demonstrators to block enforcement from taking place.

"We're a Jewish country," stated one protester. "One cannot oppose religious practice in a nation founded on Jewish identity. It is a contradiction."

A Realm Apart

Yet the transformations affecting Israel have failed to penetrate the environment of the Torah academy in a Haredi stronghold, an Haredi enclave on the edge of Tel Aviv.

Within the study hall, scholars sit in pairs to discuss the Torah, their vividly colored school notebooks contrasting with the lines of white shirts and traditional skullcaps.

"Arrive late at night, and you will see many of the students are studying Torah," the dean of the yeshiva, Rabbi Tzemach Mazuz, said. "Via dedicated learning, we safeguard the military personnel on the front lines. This constitutes our service."

Ultra-Orthodox believe that constant study and spiritual pursuit defend Israel's military, and are as vital to its military success as its tanks and air force. This tenet was endorsed by previous governments in the past, he said, but he conceded that the nation is evolving.

Rising Public Pressure

This religious sector has grown substantially its proportion of Israel's population over the last seventy years, and now accounts for around one in seven. A policy that originated as an deferment for a small number of yeshiva attendees turned into, by the onset of the 2023 war, a group of tens of thousands of men exempt from the national service.

Surveys show backing for ultra-Orthodox conscription is increasing. A poll in July showed that an overwhelming percentage of non-Haredi Jews - including a large segment in the Prime Minister's political base - favored penalties for those who refused a call-up notice, with a firm majority in approving cutting state subsidies, the right to travel, or the electoral participation.

"It makes me feel there are citizens who live in this nation without contributing," one military member in Tel Aviv explained.

"I don't think, no matter how devout, [it] should be an excuse not to perform service your nation," stated a young woman. "As a citizen by birth, I find it rather absurd that you want to avoid service just to learn in a yeshiva all day."

Perspectives from the Heart of the Community

Support for broadening conscription is also coming from observant Jews outside the ultra-Orthodox sector, like Dorit Barak, who resides close to the seminary and points to religious Zionists who do enlist in the army while also maintaining their faith.

"It makes me angry that the Haredim don't perform military service," she said. "It is unjust. I also believe in the Torah, but there's a saying in Jewish tradition - 'Safra and Saifa' – it represents the scripture and the defense together. This is the correct approach, until the arrival of peace."

Ms Barak runs a modest remembrance site in Bnei Brak to fallen servicemen, both religious and secular, who were killed in battle. Rows of images {